Branch Ave, Simi Valley

Yesterday I went to an open house in Simi Valley. We looked at 1477 Branch Ave. We were given a flyer that had a price of $650,000, but that was crossed out with $639,000 handwritten underneath. Zip Realty says this house was first listed on 3/7/07. I was thinking that the $11k price drop was awfully generous, until I saw on Zip Realty that this was the 3rd price drop on this house. The original ask was $669,999. That $309/square foot price doesn’t seem all that bad, but to me this house really doesn’t seem worth $639,000. But then, I don’t think any average tract home is really worth much more than $500,000. Sales history on this one says it was sold for $208,000 in 1993 and $208,000 again in 1999. 6% appreciation per year says this house is worth about $330,000. But I think the pool is fairly new, so that should bump up the value a bit. Nothing else in the house seemed particularly new or exciting.

The floorplan of this house was a little bit odd, but it has a really nice pool in the backyard. We went upstairs and weren’t impressed. It felt like the floors were squeaky and the elevation changed as we went from room to room.

When this house sells, I will update the price here to see where it falls.

 

Schizophrenia

I got an automated e-mail today from ZipRealty notifying me of a new listing at 566 Houston Drive in Thousand Oaks.

This house is being listed for $490,000. But wait. Yesterday I noticed it listed on Redfin for $475,000. Which is it? Well, look at the picture on Redfin. That’s not a very good-looking house. The backyard patio area is so closed in, it looks like a dungeon. Then look at the sales history. In 2002 the house was purchased for $296,500. Assuming 6% annual appreciation, this house should probably be listed at just under $400,000. But considering this house is just 3 bed, 1.5 bath and 1,200 square feet, I’m thinking $400,000 is still quite a bit for a house in one of the less desirable areas of Thousand Oaks.

Wikipedia says the median household income in Thousand Oaks is about $97,000. That seems reasonable. Typically it is advised that a household pay no more than 30% of its annual income on housing. After taxes, that means a $97k family would have about $1,800/month to spend on housing.

At $400,000, 10% down and 6.25% interest, the monthly mortgage on this house would be $2,216.00 – a little above the $1,800 threshold. A house would have to sell for $325,000 with 10% down at 6.25% interest to have a monthly mortgage of $1,800. In order to afford a $2,216/month mortgage, a family would need to earn about $118,000/year.

I wonder if an average Thousand Oaks home will ever get down to $325,000.

I guess I should share yesterday’s ZipRealty notification as well. 202 Tennyson Street for $449,000. Price seems OK until you see the note that says ” Total,total fixer!!! Home has settlement problems. Sold as is.” How much does it cost to lift a house and replace or reinforce the foudation?

 

House Pricing Changes

The Office Of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) has a website that lists all kinds of information regarding housing and the changes in housing prices. You can go to the site and run reports for various areas around the country.

I ran a report for the Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura area. I graphed the results. This graph represents the one-year percentage change in housing prices for the previous quarter. For instance, in Q1 2007 the housing prices in this group decreased by 2.08% over the same quarter in 2006. This represents the first decrease since 1996. I have attached a chart for a quick visual of the trends over the past 30 years. Right now we are in the middle of the worst decline since the late 80s and early 90s.

The recent decline does not mean that houses have decreased in value by such a significant amount.  What the graph shows is that the rate of change in housing prices have changed.  In 2003 housing increased by 32% over the previous year, whereas in 2007 housing DECREASED by 2% over the previous year.

Click the chart for a larger view.

And here are the raw numbers that I used to plot the graph.

Qtr % 1978 Q1 28.6 1978 Q2 20.76 1978 Q3 16.43 1978 Q4 16.06 1979 Q1 13.66 1979 Q2 15.91 1979 Q3 18.35 1979 Q4 17.48

Qtr % 1980 Q1 21.82 1980 Q2 17.55 1980 Q3 15.83 1980 Q4 13.78 1981 Q1 7.42 1981 Q2 5.59 1981 Q3 8.99 1981 Q4 8.99 1982 Q1 6.58 1982 Q2 6.05 1982 Q3 -2.89 1982 Q4 -0.78 1983 Q1 1.29 1983 Q2 3.02 1983 Q3 8.2 1983 Q4 3.53 1984 Q1 5.56 1984 Q2 6.27 1984 Q3 2.64 1984 Q4 6.25 1985 Q1 5.75 1985 Q2 4.18 1985 Q3 6.81 1985 Q4 5.69 1986 Q1 6.85 1986 Q2 7.93 1986 Q3 8 1986 Q4 9.38 1987 Q1 10.87 1987 Q2 11.66 1987 Q3 13.11 1987 Q4 14.86 1988 Q1 16.38 1988 Q2 18.54 1988 Q3 22.85 1988 Q4 27.58 1989 Q1 29.03 1989 Q2 29.27 1989 Q3 24.04 1989 Q4 14.93

Qtr % 1990 Q1 8.52 1990 Q2 1.41 1990 Q3 -2.62 1990 Q4 -4.68 1991 Q1 -6.66 1991 Q2 -5.75 1991 Q3 -5.28 1991 Q4 -3.05 1992 Q1 -1.75 1992 Q2 -2.02 1992 Q3 -2.5 1992 Q4 -3.99 1993 Q1 -5.14 1993 Q2 -5.12 1993 Q3 -5.48 1993 Q4 -5.32 1994 Q1 -4.03 1994 Q2 -4.75 1994 Q3 -4.86 1994 Q4 -4.94 1995 Q1 -4.32 1995 Q2 -1.6 1995 Q3 0.98 1995 Q4 2.85 1996 Q1 2.79 1996 Q2 1.66 1996 Q3 -0.48 1996 Q4 -0.49 1997 Q1 0.07 1997 Q2 1.11 1997 Q3 3.18 1997 Q4 4.24 1998 Q1 5.88 1998 Q2 6.94 1998 Q3 8.51 1998 Q4 8.76 1999 Q1 8.66 1999 Q2 10.09 1999 Q3 9.91 1999 Q4 9.8

Qtr % 2000 Q1 12.21 2000 Q2 11.06 2000 Q3 11.46 2000 Q4 11.45 2001 Q1 9.53 2001 Q2 10.09 2001 Q3 9.43 2001 Q4 9.33 2002 Q1 10.6 2002 Q2 12.4 2002 Q3 13.82 2002 Q4 15.35 2003 Q1 14.73 2003 Q2 13.09 2003 Q3 13.05 2003 Q4 18.31 2004 Q1 19.55 2004 Q2 23.63 2004 Q3 32.73 2004 Q4 25.88 2005 Q1 25.12 2005 Q2 22.65 2005 Q3 15.15 2005 Q4 17.52 2006 Q1 16.82 2006 Q2 13.43 2006 Q3 8.11 2006 Q4 2.66 2007 Q1 -2.08

 

Oak Park Action

Here is a list of all houses sold in Oak Park during the past 3 months. I excluded condos, and I defined Oak Park as north of the Los Angeles County line and east of Lindero Canyon Road. If the house had previous sales info since the year 2000, then I included that data. There was only one house that had previous sales data after the 2003/2004 housing boom, and that was 495 Burano Court which previously sold for $979k in 2005 and then sold for $1,080k 2 months ago. It is also the house on this list with the smallest percentage gain in value and the smallest absolute gain. So far it doesn’t look like there is a whole lot of evidence to suggest much of a crash or downturn in Oak Park. Perhaps a more upscale neighborhood such as this is less susceptible to foreclosures or other forced sales, so it may take longer for the ripple effect of the surrounding housing market to hit Oak Park.

The interesting thing on this list is the house at 6077 Larkellen. Last month it sold for just $208k, after selling for $133k two years ago. It’s a 1900+ square foot house. Either this house was sold within a family, or it must be the victim of a fire or other damage.

Address	SqFt	Date	Price	$/Ft	Prev	Price
6547 Pinion St	1,295	5/17/2007	$690,000	$533	9/20/2002	$470,000
475 Park Springs Ct	1,628	5/30/2007	$790,000	$485
5151 Pesto Way	1,859	5/31/2007	$870,000	$468	11/3/2000	$432,000
495 Burano Ct	2,358	5/21/2007	$1,080,000	$458	3/31/2005	$979,000
11 Kanan Rd	1,350	5/14/2007	$616,000	$456	12/20/2001	$314,545
6525 Joshua St	1,594	5/31/2007	$690,000	$433
5024 Blackpool Ave	1,950	5/17/2007	$808,000	$414	3/21/2002	$530,000
1153 Heatherview Dr	1,623	6/1/2007	$667,000	$411
421 Sunny Brook Ct	1,936	6/19/2007	$785,000	$405
1109 Heatherview Dr	1,623	5/11/2007	$638,500	$393
6830 Oak Springs Dr	2,213	4/18/2007	$840,000	$380
6384 Tamarind St	1,996	6/14/2007	$755,000	$378
4976 Barbados Ct	2,216	6/6/2007	$817,000	$369	10/31/2002	$528,000
493 Savona Way	2,387	6/6/2007	$799,000	$335
5060 Evanwood Ave	2,466	6/4/2007	$820,000	$333	5/12/2002	$485,000
6077 Larkellen Ct	1,909	6/1/2007	$208,500	$109	11/29/2005	$133,500

 

Tracking A Sale, Part 2

This house at 5044 Blackpool Avenue in Oak Park

went up for sale on Redfin yesterday. It’s a 5-bed, 3-bath home on 2,815 square feet. The kitchen looks tiny for such a large house.

In the sales history, it previous sold for $955,000 on 10/23/06. It is now being listed for $1,089,000, which would be a $134,000 profit in 9 months. Not bad. Let’s see if they can get it. I will post updates on this any time the asking price changes or the house sells.

 

Fixer

I was browsing craigslist, and found this listing:

“Fixer, Fixer, Fixer in Newbury Park”

3 Bedrooms, 2 bath for $525,000 and it needs to be fixed up. With a little research, I was able to find it on redfin Sure seems like a lot of money for a “fixer”. The last time this property was sold was 1997 at $184,000, which seems like a pretty low price even for 1997 money, so this house must need some serious work, especially considering there are no interior pictures included. The house two doors down sold for $649,500 last summer, and that one has a pool and a 4th bedroom. I’m guessing this house sells for much less than the $525k asking price.

 

June Sales

I found the following homes on Zillow in the Thousand Oaks area that sold during the month of June, and had previous sales history since 1/1/2003.

193 Donegal in Newbury Park sold for $504,000 on 6/19/07 after purchasing for $625,000 on 2/16/06.

97 Dickenson in Newbury Park sold for $645,000 on 6/15/07 after purchasing for $500,000 on 1/12/04.

428 Dena Drive in Newbury Park sold for $530,000 on 6/19/07 after purchasing for $587,000 on 6/8/05.

3779 Calle Posadas in Newbury Park sold for $715,000 on 6/11/07 after purchasing for $815,000 on 6/30/06.

788 Paseo De Leon in Newbury Park sold for $965,000 on 6/22/07 after purchasing for $930,000 on 12/21/04.

527 Citation Way in Thousand Oaks sold for $1,185,000 on 6/25/07 after purchasing for $987,000 on 5/17/05 and $789,500 on 7/12/04.

890 Vinton Ct in Thousand Oaks sold for $565,000 on 6/22/07 after purchasing for $492,692 on 4/18/07. How the heck did they flip this for a $70k profit in just 2 months in this market, in that neighborhood?

1217 Sheffield Place in Thousand Oaks sold for $581,000 on 6/14/07 after purchasing for $535,000 on 1/25/07 and $690,000 on 1/24/06 and $575,100 on 9/20/05. Interesting that somebody ate $160k between and ‘06 and ‘07 and then the property was flipped for a $40k profit in 5 months this year.

And here’s another with similar history to Sheffield:

1881 Rutgers Drive in Thousand Oaks sold for $565,000 on 6/11/07 after purchasing for $517,500 on 4/11/07 and $670,000 on 7/1/05.

1569 Burning Tree Drive in Thousand Oaks sold for $560,000 on 6/22/07 after purchasing for $525,000 on 3/1/07.

555 Calle Tulipan in Thousand Oaks was a big ouch, selling for $549,000 on 6/13/07 after purchasing for $670,000 on 6/27/05 and $575,000 on 7/1/04 and $345,000 on 9/9/03.

 

Evidence To The Contrary?

Over the past few months as I’ve been doing internet research on housing prices and the housing bubble, I seem to come across lots and lots of information about how the housing market is ready for a fall.  This seems to be pretty universal across the country.  One thing I haven’t found is much in the way of good arguments supporting a sustained housing market, or even future growth.  I hear homeowners who seem to think that everything is going to be fine, but I suspect most of them are either not doing any research, or are just hoping for the best.

But I want to know if you’ve seen any good arguments in the past 6 months to say that the housing market in Southern California is not due for any kind of crash or letdown.  If you have, please share it in the comments section of this post.

 

Tiny Dancer

This house on Houston Drive is currently listed on redfin for $429,000 and says it’s been listed for 6 months. But I think I’ve seen a for sale sign in front of the house for over a year now. I also seem to recall seeing a listing price of over $500k at one point. The price is coming down, but it’s still going to cost you over $2400/month mortgage (if you put $30,000 down) for a 2 bedroom, 1 bath house with only 924 square feet. Sound like a deal?

 

Desperate Or Not?

Here’s a house I found for sale on craigslist.  The ad says “desperate”.  But the price says “I still want to make a nice profit”.

30818 Overfall Dr in Westlake Village

$699,000

Last sold: 4/16/2004 for $616,000

So, the goal  here is to make an $83,000 profit in 3+ years to avoid foreclosure, and do it in a declining/stale market?  Good luck.  We’ll check back later and see if it sells and for how much.