Come on.  Is there any possible way that this could really be a good time to buy?  Sure, there are probably some foreclosures out there that are good deals, and a few other individual circumstances that would say this is a good time to buy.  But as a whole, this is a terrible time to buy.  On the radio today it was reported that sales volume is down 30% (I assume that is over this time last year), yet median price is up slightly.  This tells me that few people are buying, and those that are buying are people with higher incomes who aren’t as sensitive to price.  To me, this sounds like a market that is absolutely NOT an excellent time for buyers.

ORIGINALLY POSTED: 8-1-07

Zip Realty notified me of 676 Glen Oaks Road for sale this morning. Price tag: $399,000.

Redfin lists the house for $435,000. 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath on 1,056 square feet. That comes out to an absurd $412/square foot in an old, compacted neighborhood in Thousand Oaks. ($377/square foot based on the above $399,000 tag.)

Now here’s the good news for those of us who are waiting for housing prices to come back to reality. Redfin says this house was purchased for $471,000 on 2/18/2005. This house has apparently just been put on the market, and they are starting off by dropping the price either $36,000 or $72,000 from the purchase price 2-1/2 years ago.

Redfin also says: “This home has been remodeled over the last few years. Newer kitchen with newer appliances; newer bathrooms; newer ceramic tile in entry, dining area & kitchen. Pergo flooring in living room and hall; newer carpet in bedrooms. Quiet location.”

I have no idea if “last few years” is an exaggeration, or the current sellers actually invested money into this unit and are still going to lose at least $36,000 on the sale price after 2 years.

Crash!

Update August 7, 2007: Price reduced to $569,000

Originally posted: July 6, 2007

Let’s try tracking a house for sale and see what happens. I’ll try and update this every 2 weeks or so.

A house just went on the market yesterday at 638 Shenandoah Drive in Thousand Oaks. It’s a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1040 square foot house built in 1970 listing for $589,000. That works out to $566/square foot. Neither Zillow nor Redfin have previous sale history on this house, so I’m guessing the owner has held it for more than just a few years. The listing claims: “Whet your appetite with this adorable starter home…” Being a “starter home”, you would think it should sell fast, so we’ll see if it does, and if they have to drop the price. With $0 down and 6% interest, this “starter home” will cost $3500/month mortgage. If a “starter” was able to come up with the 20% down on this house ($118,000), his mortgage payment would be “only” $2800/month.

Or, you can rent this house for $2100/month and put $1400/month into a 4% interest account and have $36,000 in the bank after 2 years that you can use on a down payment when housing prices might be a bit lower. Or if you invested that $118k you would have used on a down payment plus the $700/month you are saving it would be worth $144,000 in 2 years.

Check back in 2 weeks and we’ll see if this house has had any action.

Price has been reduced to $569,000.  I was right about the $599 being too high.  I’m sure this one has a ways to go.

ORIGINALLY POSTED: 8-10-07

66 W Gainsborough Road

List Price: $599,000

The ZipRealty comment says ” Great buy on major fixer. Needs plenty of tlc.” I don’t know about you, but spending $600,000 on a tract home FIXER seems nuts. Neither Zillow nor Redfin have any past sales history on this house, which generally seems to mean that the current owners have owned a home for 10 years or more, but seeing as this is a trustee sale, that may not apply. Either way, if you bought this fixer with 20% down and 7% interest, you are looking at a $3,193 monthly payment. I wonder where you’re going to get the cash flow to fix this thing. It is 6 bed, 3 bath and 2,383 square feet. That actually comes out to about $250 per square foot, which isn’t half bad. Once again, I’m sure this won’t sell for anything near the $599k asking price.

Originally posted: 8/7/07

920 Bower Way. Seems like so many of the houses for sale in Thousand Oaks right now are in the tiny old neighborhood between the 23, Hillcrest Drive and Hodencamp.

920 Bower Way is listed for $575,000. It was purchased for $640,000 on 1/9/2007. That means the asking price is $65,000 less than they paid for it 7 months ago. They lost $9,285 per month. Plus they probably paid over $3,000/month in mortgage payments. “Close to Civic Arts Plaza, shopping, 23 and the 101 Freeways” That means they are about 100 feet away from the 23 freeway. Of course, even at $575,000 this house seems overpriced to me. I don’t think any house in this neighborhood is worth more than $400,000. I’d have to see inside this one, but I’d guess something around $350,000 might be reasonable. Folks, let’s see if we can keep our heads on when we buy houses after this housing bubble returns to normalcy.

Let’s play the appreciation game. This house also shows a sale price of $175,000 at the end of 1995. That seems like a reasonable price. If this house appreciated 3% per year since then, it would have been worth about $242,000 at the end of 2006 – a few days after the current owners paid $640,000.

But 654 Glen Oaks is “one of the best priced single family houses in the conejo”. Or…you can go down the street and save about $70k.

Why don’t they close the cabinet door before taking the picture?

What’s up with this floor?

But if you’re looking to spend $440/square foot, this home is for you!

This house was last purchased on 4/3/2007 for $430,462, so I guess they are just looking to flip this baby for a $35k profit in just over 4 months during a crashing market.  You go girl!

Financially Conservative Home Financing

This article is another valuable look at why Adjustable Rate Mortgages have caused our housing market to bubble, and what kinds of things people should be thinking about when they buy houses, to make sure they can afford their homes.

Does  mean that this house was foreclosed on by the lender on 4/12/07?  Or did a homeowner buy it on 4/12/07 and it is already being put up for auction?  What other possibilities are there here?  I’m sure that the purchaser on 2/24/05 was happy that they lost $22,000 on this house in just over 2 years’ of ownership.

This property at 858 DORCHESTER ST in Thousand Oaks just listed a couple of days ago. Here is the Redfin listing. The house is listed for $489,000 on Zip Realty. There are no photos online yet, but it’s a 3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1,016 square footer. The Zillow sales history says this was purchased on 4/4/2006 for $550,000. That’s a $61,000 loss in a little over a year. And I bet it sells for less than $489,000.

If anybody knows Zillow well, maybe you can help me with something. Prior to the 4/4/2006 sale there is a 2/1/2002 sale listed for just $74,000. What’s that all about? Why so low? Is it an error? Was the house damaged? Every once in awhile I run across listings like this. The only other sale history on this is 1/13/2000 for $220,000.

Judging by the size of the house and the neighborhood, that $220,000 figure sounds about right. If we calculated a 3% appreciation per year since 2000, that puts the current value of the house around $270,000. That’s a $1,500/month mortgage (assuming 6.5% interest and 10% down). I think that sounds about right.

Countrywide Financial Corp. said Tuesday that its second-quarter profit shrank by nearly a third as softening home prices led to rising delinquencies and mortgage defaults among the most creditworthy borrowers.

“Looking to the second half of 2007, we expect difficult housing and mortgage market conditions to persist,” he said.

Mozilo said he doesn’t expect that the market will turn around until 2009 at the earliest.

The only thing missing are quotes from a realtor telling us not to worry that this is just a minor market adjustment and now is a good time to buy because the housing market will be strong again very soon.