Thousand Oaks Housing Bubble & Crash

Today I received a mailer from a mortgage company (who I had previously consulted with).  The letter was basically just a tool to remind me who they were, but included a statement that said “this still is an excellent time for buyers in the real estate market.”

Come on.  Is there any possible way that this could really be a good time to buy?  Sure, there are probably some foreclosures out there that are good deals, and a few other individual circumstances that would say this is a good time to buy.  But as a whole, this is a terrible time to buy.  On the radio today it was reported that sales volume is down 30% (I assume that is over this time last year), yet median price is up slightly.  This tells me that few people are buying, and those that are buying are people with higher incomes who aren’t as sensitive to price.  To me, this sounds like a market that is absolutely NOT an excellent time for buyers.

UPDATE: 9-4-07   ZipRealty now lists the price of this house at $349,000.  That’s a 12.5% reduction.   Only about $150,000 more to go until this is priced accurately.

ORIGINALLY POSTED: 8-1-07

Zip Realty notified me of 676 Glen Oaks Road for sale this morning. Price tag: $399,000.

Redfin lists the house for $435,000. 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath on 1,056 square feet. That comes out to an absurd $412/square foot in an old, compacted neighborhood in Thousand Oaks. ($377/square foot based on the above $399,000 tag.)

Now here’s the good news for those of us who are waiting for housing prices to come back to reality. Redfin says this house was purchased for $471,000 on 2/18/2005. This house has apparently just been put on the market, and they are starting off by dropping the price either $36,000 or $72,000 from the purchase price 2-1/2 years ago.

Redfin also says: “This home has been remodeled over the last few years. Newer kitchen with newer appliances; newer bathrooms; newer ceramic tile in entry, dining area & kitchen. Pergo flooring in living room and hall; newer carpet in bedrooms. Quiet location.”

I have no idea if “last few years” is an exaggeration, or the current sellers actually invested money into this unit and are still going to lose at least $36,000 on the sale price after 2 years.

Crash!